A Frustrated Romney Loses Lead in SC

Mitt Romney set off an epic nationwide Mo-dar (that’s like radar, or gay-dar, but for Mormons) ping last night when he tried to manage questions about his tax returns by insisting that he had been “honest in his dealings.”

LDS Church members are routinely asked if they are “honest in [their] dealings” when they interview to qualify for LDS temple worship, and those who cannot answer affirmatively cannot participate. Romney has participated in hundreds—if not thousands—of such interviews during his time as a member and a lay congregational and lay regional leader for the Church.

But what works for proving worthiness in a religious setting may not win over South Carolina voters, as evidenced by the boos at the CNN debate and dramatic last-minute reversals in the polls.

No wonder Romney again let his prickly side come out during the debate. No wonder he’s feeling a bit defensive. His plan-ahead-work-hard-execute-precisely-and-smile strategy—equal parts technocrat and LDS corporate culture—isn’t working in the Palmetto state.

South Carolina is no cakewalk for a wonky Yankee Mormon. This year, we did not witness some of the overt Lee Atwater-style underhanded electoral anti-Mormonism that we saw in 2008, when Romney opponents mailed Christmas cards bearing the Romney family picture alongside approving quotes about God and His plural wives from nineteenth-century Mormon leaders. Political reporters on the scene are saying that the base may be generally less concerned with Mitt’s religion this year, that Mormonism may “carry less weight” and be “less of a factor.” Still, LDS folks I speak with in South Carolina continue to tell me that they routinely downplay their Mormonness in everyday life, just to get along.

But isolating the role of religion in Romney’s disconnect with SC voters is nearly impossible. There are so many other factors at work—Romney’s past softness on social issues among them, not to mention the stiff, defensive, corporate manner in which he conducts his campaign.

“A Mormon will never win in the South”—I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard that from LDS people. One Mormon may not win in the South this weekend. But I’m not sure it’s his Mormonism we’ll have to blame.